Possible scenario
Gulf Containment Holds
45% Chance
Qatar’s emir uses the speech to draw a hard line against Iranian attacks while preserving Doha’s role as a mediator on Gaza. Washington, Riyadh, Doha and Abu Dhabi coordinate air-defense messaging, and Tehran avoids a new direct strike in the immediate aftermath.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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