Possible scenario
U.S. Escalates
18% Chance
Washington judges the 18-chemical list as insufficient and moves against firms, brokers and e-commerce channels suspected of supplying fentanyl networks. The counternarcotics channel stays open, but the issue again becomes part of the wider U.S.-China enforcement and sanctions agenda.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -1.0%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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