Possible scenario
Traffickers Reroute
25% Chance
The China list closes some direct supply routes but pushes traffickers toward alternative chemical pathways and jurisdictions. North American enforcement agencies shift attention to transshipment through Canada, Mexico and South or Southeast Asia.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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