Possible scenario
Cooperation Holds
45% Chance
Beijing's expanded export-control list becomes a functioning channel for U.S.-China counternarcotics cooperation. The Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Public Security and U.S. DEA coordinate on license screening and suspicious shipment data, lowering pressure for immediate U.S. retaliation.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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