Limited Military Escalation

A smaller but material probability is that the U.S. or UK decides the alleged assassination plot crosses a red line requiring military retaliation. Any strike would likely be limited and aimed at IRGC drone, missile, or command facilities, but markets would react as if the risk of a wider conflict has risen.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.