Possible scenario
Deterrence Without Strikes
26% Chance
The U.S. reinforces air and naval defenses around the Gulf, Iraq, Syria, and UK bases but does not immediately strike Iran. This path is plausible because Washington may want to deter further IRGC activity while preserving escalation control.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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