Possible scenario
Coordinated Legal Retaliation
44% Chance
Washington and London treat the alleged drone plot as a state-directed assassination attempt but stop short of military action. The most likely near-term path is indictments, sanctions, expulsions, and heightened base security at RAF Fairford and other U.S.-used facilities in Britain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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