Possible scenario
Managed De-Escalation
20% Chance
Taiwan, the United States, and Japan manage the episode through monitoring, public messaging, and backchannels while avoiding provocative military responses. Beijing banks the symbolic gain but reduces the tempo before the patrol pattern becomes a crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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