Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Patrols Normalize
45% Chance
China treats the first east-coast maritime militia patrol as a new baseline rather than a prelude to immediate conflict. Taiwan shadows the vessels, the United States and Japan issue statements, and the pattern becomes another gray-zone pressure point around the island.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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