Possible scenario
Regional Stress Broadens
25% Chance
Foreclosure pressure spreads beyond a few distressed borrowers into weaker regional housing markets. Investors become more concerned that rising bank-owned inventory will pressure prices and force lenders to tighten underwriting.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.