Possible scenario
Tourism Disruption Deepens
25% Chance
Flooded roads, beach erosion, and unreliable power force hotels and tour operators to cancel or discount early October bookings. The direct macro impact remains limited, but exposed Mexican airport, hotel, and retail names underperform.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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