Possible scenario
Capability Gap Persists
30% Chance
Kolibri improves Europe’s open-weight position but fails to change the near-term buying calculus for frontier AI customers. Large enterprises continue using closed models for high-value reasoning, coding, and agentic workflows.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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