Possible scenario
Merz Stabilizes Coalition
35% Chance
Friedrich Merz keeps the CDU/CSU-SPD government intact by accelerating economic relief, tightening migration enforcement, and reshuffling weaker ministers. The AfD remains the largest polling party for a period, but the immediate crisis of confidence inside the Union eases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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