Possible scenario
AfD State Normalization
20% Chance
The AfD leverages its first state government as proof that it can administer budgets, police policy, and schools. The national effect depends on whether courts, civil servants, and business groups contain the most disruptive measures or whether the party gains another regional breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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