AU Mediated Stand-Down

The most likely path is a managed de-escalation because both governments face high costs from a full interstate war and external actors have strong incentives to prevent another Horn of Africa conflict. The African Union, Kenya, the United States, and the UAE press both sides to restore military hotlines while leaving the diplomatic rupture unresolved.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.