Possible scenario
Measured Ramp Succeeds
45% Chance
Blue Origin proceeds with the $330 million Florida expansion while taking a staged approach after the May 2026 pad explosion. The most likely outcome is a gradual recovery in confidence, with New Glenn moving from sporadic launches toward a higher cadence rather than immediately achieving weekly flights.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Telecommunications +0.1%
Tickers
- AMZN+0.4%
- SPCX-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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