Possible scenario
Republicans Contain Damage
27% Chance
Republican turnout remains resilient despite Trump's weak approval, helped by district lines, candidate quality, and late polarization around immigration and crime. The market reaction is limited because policy continuity remains the central expectation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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