Possible scenario
Late Economic Reset
18% Chance
The White House responds to the polling slide by trying to recenter the campaign on wages, taxes, tariffs, and interest rates. The strategy may stabilize Republican support, but it also risks unsettling markets if it implies larger deficits or pressure on the Federal Reserve.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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