Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
42% Chance
Trump's 50% strong disapproval hardens the view that the 2026 midterms are becoming a referendum on his economic management. Democratic turnout improves in suburban districts, while Republican candidates in Biden-Trump swing areas increasingly distance themselves from the White House.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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