Possible scenario
UN Brokered Compromise
38% Chance
The United Nations Secretariat and the U.S. Mission negotiate a face-saving arrangement that avoids a physical removal of Iran’s delegation. Washington keeps tight movement restrictions in place, while Tehran claims Rubio’s order failed under the UN Headquarters Agreement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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