Possible scenario
Prolonged Diplomatic Standoff
32% Chance
The United States maintains the expulsion demand while Iran refuses to recognize it, pushing the matter into UN procedural channels. The dispute blocks near-term follow-up talks after the recent UN contact and keeps geopolitical risk modestly elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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