Possible scenario
Yield Shock Extends
38% Chance
The selloff continues as investors demand a higher term premium after the Fed's rate increase and persistent deficit concerns. Equity duration risk remains the main pressure point, with technology, homebuilders, utilities, and leveraged consumer names leading declines.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -2.0%
- Technology -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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