Possible scenario
Buyers Defend Bonds
30% Chance
Long-end yields stabilize as pension funds, foreign reserve managers, and real-money investors step in at the highest yields since 2007. Equities recover part of the selloff as volatility eases and crowded bearish positioning is trimmed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
- Utilities +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.