Possible scenario
Regulators Slow Scope
18% Chance
The SEC and banking regulators remain supportive of experimentation but require additional safeguards around custody, investor rights, transfer-agent records, and settlement finality. Nasdaq proceeds, but the path to broad commercial deployment becomes slower and more compliance-heavy.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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