Possible scenario
Scrutiny Broadens
20% Chance
Opponents and watchdog groups push the Bosnia matter into a legal and ethics frame, including questions about foreign-agent registration and sanctions exposure. This scenario is less likely but would keep the issue alive through the final midterm stretch.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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