Possible scenario
Limited Staff Shakeup
25% Chance
Trump follows through partially on his firing threats by removing or sidelining one adviser tied to the Bosnia work while retaining the broader political operation. The move lets the campaign claim accountability without abandoning its national midterm strategy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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