Possible scenario
Sanctions Squeeze Deepens
40% Chance
The most likely path is continued depreciation as the U.S. Treasury campaign, oil-export blockade, and loss of hard-currency inflows overwhelm Central Bank of Iran defenses. Tehran relies on rationing, arrests of exchange dealers, and preferential rates for food and medicine rather than making nuclear concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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