Possible scenario
Negotiated Off-Ramp Emerges
15% Chance
A smaller but plausible path is a diplomatic pause brokered by Oman or Qatar, with Washington offering limited relief in exchange for nuclear restraint and verified oil-export caps. This would reduce immediate supply-risk premiums and ease pressure on the rial.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.4%
- Consumer Services +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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