Possible scenario
Decision Is Delayed
25% Chance
A blocking minority or unresolved legal concerns postpone the decision without formally derailing accession talks. This is plausible because Kyiv's 2025 move to weaken a key anticorruption agency remains a credibility problem for several member states.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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