Possible scenario
Escalation Cycle Widens
20% Chance
A less likely but plausible scenario is that Russia follows the strike with another wave against Kyiv or logistics targets, prompting larger Ukrainian retaliation. This would be viewed as a material near-term escalation inside the existing war rather than a new regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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