Possible scenario
Strikes Escalate Further
22% Chance
Moscow follows the claim with additional strikes on furnaces, substations, rail junctions and energy infrastructure that serve the remaining metals base. This becomes a material escalation for Ukraine's war economy, though still short of a global systemic shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.