Possible scenario
Wider War Escalation
20% Chance
Moscow frames the refinery strike as a major escalation and responds with intensified strikes on Ukrainian power and fuel infrastructure. Markets price a modest increase in geopolitical risk rather than a systemic crisis, given the war's existing intensity.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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