Possible scenario
Sustained Fuel Disruption
25% Chance
Damage proves more serious than initially reported, forcing Gazprom Neft to keep Moscow refinery operations curtailed. Russia diverts fuel from other regions and export channels, tightening diesel and gasoline balances at the margin.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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