Possible scenario
Rapid Refinery Restart
45% Chance
Russian emergency crews contain the damage at Gazprom Neft's Moscow refinery and restore most crude processing within days. This is the most likely outcome because prior Ukrainian drone strikes have often caused temporary outages rather than long-term refinery losses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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