Possible scenario
Legal Limits Reemerge
24% Chance
Courts and appropriators could curb the most aggressive parts of the detention regime, especially the ICE ban on bond access and blanket denial of parole. This would not necessarily restore large-scale releases, but it would weaken the operational claim that releases can stay at zero indefinitely.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- GEO-4.8%
- CXW-4.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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