Possible scenario
Detention Model Entrenches
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the Trump administration treats 16 months of zero CBP releases as proof of concept and keeps scaling detention, expedited removal, and third-country return agreements. ICE's planned $38 billion detention expansion makes this path operationally plausible, even if capacity remains tight.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- GEO+5.0%
- CXW+4.5%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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