Possible scenario
Wider Market Probe
30% Chance
The investigation broadens from the first 20 jailed suspects to brokers, custody accounts, and additional market participants. This raises the risk that the crash was tied to a larger leverage and market-manipulation network, increasing pressure on Turkish financial shares.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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