Possible scenario
Safety Backlash Emerges
18% Chance
A high-profile failure, privacy incident, or inaccurate eligibility determination creates public backlash against the unrestricted-growth approach. The immediate market impact would be concentrated in AI software, federal contractors, and cybersecurity rather than the broader economy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.2%
- Business Services -0.9%
- Healthcare -0.3%
Tickers
- -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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