Possible scenario
Leadership Strike Attempt
18% Chance
Houthi rhetoric about retaliation against Saudi leaders becomes operational planning against government or royal-linked sites. This would be a sharper escalation than attacks on infrastructure, though Saudi air defenses make a high-casualty outcome less likely.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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