Possible scenario
Energy Infrastructure Escalation
28% Chance
Houthis shift retaliation toward energy targets, building on recent strikes against Riyadh and Aramco facilities. Even limited damage could lift crude risk premia because Saudi export reliability is central to global oil supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Consumer Services -1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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