Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation
42% Chance
The most likely path is a limited Houthi response designed to preserve deterrence without forcing a full Saudi air campaign. Riyadh and Washington-backed air defenses intercept most projectiles, while Oman and UN channels work to prevent the truce framework from collapsing entirely.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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