Possible scenario
Denial Contains Dispute
40% Chance
Trump's denial is reinforced by a White House clarification and Ambassador David Perdue narrows or walks back his account. The episode remains a messaging problem rather than a policy shift, with markets treating it as another volatile but contained U.S.-China-Taiwan headline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- LMT+0.2%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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