Possible scenario
Beijing Presses Advantage
20% Chance
Beijing treats the blocked Taiwan sale and Perdue's comments as evidence that Washington is open to concessions. China demands a durable halt to Taiwan weapons transfers, raising uncertainty for defense policy and U.S.-China risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.