Possible scenario
Release Slips
20% Chance
The October target slips after safety testing finds problematic behavior around inferred intent, persuasion, or unauthorized task completion. The delay would be plausible because Anthropic has publicly emphasized safeguards and AI safety policy in the weeks before the expected release.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- AMZN-0.5%
- MSFT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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