Possible scenario
Partial Pause Emerges
25% Chance
After the latest strikes, U.S. envoys push both sides toward a narrower ceasefire covering power plants, substations, and major transmission assets. Moscow may prefer ambiguity, but a limited pause is plausible if Russia wants to test Trump’s mediation without accepting a broader truce.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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