Possible scenario
Ceasefire Collapses
45% Chance
Moscow continues striking Ukraine’s power grid and avoids formally endorsing Trump’s announced energy ceasefire. This is the most likely path because the latest attacks directly undercut the White House claim and fit Russia’s recurring winter pressure strategy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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