Possible scenario
Talks Stall Again
20% Chance
The invitation fails to translate into a durable reset, either because the visit is postponed or because talks expose unresolved disputes over Yemen and OPEC+ authority. The baseline outcome is renewed diplomatic coolness rather than immediate escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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