Possible scenario
Publicity Outpaces Recoveries
20% Chance
The administration keeps announcing individual awards, but independent auditors say the totals do not substantiate the headline fraud figure. The program remains politically useful while producing limited budgetary or market consequences.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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