Managed Rule Rollout

The most likely path is that USDA and state agencies implement the expanded work rules with uneven but manageable disruption. New York City's re-application window helps reverse some benefit terminations, while most states rely on notices, exemptions, and caseworker triage to limit abrupt losses.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.