Possible scenario
Partial Buy-In Only
30% Chance
The bipartisan effort attracts moderates but fails to bind party hard-liners or candidates in the closest races. This leaves the January seating question dependent on election margins, state certifications, and the willingness of party leaders to discipline defectors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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